What is the Delphi method?

The Delphi method, also known as the Delphi method, is a practical method used to determine and solve problems openly. It is a research technique that has the purpose of making systematic forecasts and predictions that require a structured interaction on a topic between a group of experts.

This technique can include at least two rounds of experts capable of responding questions and justify their answers, providing the opportunity through rounds of changes and reviews.

This method tries to bring together different opinions from a group of different experts without having to bring them all together physically. This is because the responses of each of the participants are completely anonymous, therefore, the panelists do not have to worry about the consequences of their opinions.

What is the Delphi method for?

This method is usually used mostly as a prediction in companies, to be able to identify various trends in the market and get ahead of them. It is also very common in political systems in order to know the line of thought of the voters and in turn where it has to lean.

The application of this prospecting technique allows companies to stand out from all their competitors, since they can be ahead of the needs of users and thus be able to offer them products and services that are as close as possible to the demand of the public.

It is an extremely important tool when making decisions, to prevent the company from being affected by various areas such as prices or also the distribution of communication external.

Advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi method

This method contains a number of important advantages and disadvantages that are detailed below:

Advantages of the Delphi method

• It provides valuable information that comes from various experts who figure highly within the business.
• Because it is totally anonymous, it takes great pressure and conditioning from all participants.
• It can be done quickly if the experts are willing.
• The interactive control that is given to the participants gives the opportunity to reduce the noise they have when expressing the second opinion.
• It allows to form an accurate criterion of the problem that arises with a high level of objectivity.

Disadvantages of the Delphi method

• You need a good approach to the questionnaire to achieve the method effectively.
• The presence of a consensus in the opinions does not guarantee its success.
• The participation of experts who do not have easy access is necessary.
• The participants cannot elaborate their own opinions and neither can they dialogue with each other.

Phases of the Delphi method

This method comprises the following phases:

Definition of objectives

In this first phase, the formulation of the problem is carried out together with a general objective that is composed by the objective to be studied, by the spatial frame of reference and by the time of study.

Selection of experts

The second phase is based on two dimensions:

• The qualitative dimension: This is selected according to the pre-selected objective and according to the experience criteria that have access to information and availability.
• The quantitative dimension: This dimension will depend on the size of the sample, the resources and the time available.

Panel formation

This phase begins with the capture that leads to the configuration of a solid panel. For this, they must be informed about:

• The objectives of the study.
• The selection of criteria.
• The maximum duration time.
• The uses and expected results.
• Final report reward.

Preparation and launch of questionnaires

These questionnaires are carried out in the third phase, they must be prepared in a simple way so that the respondents can answer easily. All responses must be quantified and weighted.

Exploitation of the results

In this fourth and final phase, the questionnaires should reduce and specify the consensus opinion. When the second questionnaire is sent, the experts must be informed of the results of the first consultation and transmit a new response. Differences are classified and an evaluation is carried out on them.

Features of the Delphi method

Among the most relevant characteristics are:

• Anonymous experts can be known, however, they do not need to identify the opinions that relate to the idea that is in consultation.
• Present the same questionnaire repeatedly to obtain a controlled interaction.
• The group's responses must be statistically reflected, since the information is the opinion of the experts according to the degree to which it was obtained.
• The panel of experts is heterogeneous, because they can participate in different lines of activity.

Application of the Delphi method in a company

The objective of companies is to maintain their existence for a long time and thus be able to achieve the maximum economic benefit. For this to be possible, strategic plans must be made that make known the entire environment in which their activity moves.

There are many techniques that can estimate the future of the company, but the most outstanding is the Delphi method, since it is a instrument that has the ability to obtain future information through the opinion of experts who probe the evolution of the company.

Over the years, this method has become a effective technique in business decision making and thus select the most appropriate path to benefit the company.

The biggest advantage of this method is that it can eliminate the leader figure among the experts who are surveyed, This is because it is a totally anonymous technique, therefore, you can achieve results with better perspectives.

However, the execution of a test or questionnaire that is composed of appropriate, precise, independent and quantifiable questions should not be neglected.

In general, this efficient method can be used in a large number of variables related to research, production areas, in the human resources sector, in marketing and especially in the strategic planning of companies to help them in their decision-making decisions.