RETROSPECTIVE BIAS: what it is, characteristics and examples

A very common and dangerous bias, because it is unknown to most, is the so-called "hindsight bias" or hindsight bias, which consists of the error of retrospective judgment. Also called hindsight or recapitulation bias. It is an effect of the emphasis on recent memories that is activated by convincing you that you have foreseen an event, but that event is already known or has even occurred. It's when you say after, but not before: "I said so." This process leads away from reality and close to misunderstandings and relational problems; in fact you had not foreseen it, you think you did, but it is not like that. In this Psychology-Online article, we are going to delve into what what is hindsight bias, its characteristics and some examples about.

Index

1. What is hindsight bias
2. Retrospective bias characteristics
3. Examples of retrospective biases

What does hindsight bias mean? The concept of retrospective bias is derived from the psychological literature and, in particular, from experimental studies that show that

But why does this happen? Our brain reasons by patterns and associations of ideas, and in this way, every time we can associate a consequence with a cause, the brain fuses them into a usefully repeatable pattern, to be able to use it again in the face of a similar situation and help us to foresee it.

Better understand biases, in this article you will find what are cognitive biases with examples.

Hindsight bias manifests itself in full force after a great catastrophe, when the entire world thinks it knows how and why it happened and why experts and leaders should have provided. Unlikely and unpredictable events become not only probable, but practically certain afterwards. After a disaster, in hindsight everything seems simple and the "expert" analyzing the case wonders how the implicated subject could not have realized the obvious connections.

Hindsight bias has another aspect, known as outcome bias: When an exit is unfavorable, those who re-examine the case are more likely to criticize the attention paid and to find errors. For example, Caplan and colleagues (1991) asked two groups of physicians to review a series of clinical notes. The scores for both groups were identical, except for patient outcomes, which were satisfactory for one group of reviewers and poor for the other. The group of outcomes poor made much harsher criticism than the other group, although the treatments described were identical. So in hindsight we simplify things and tend to be more critical when the output is unfavorable.

Let's look at some examples of these cognitive biases:

• Conspiracies. Hindsight bias plays a determining role in conspiracy theories; conspiracy theories are often based on an outcome that, in light of the available elements, does not could be easily predictable and, despite this, whoever had been in charge of intervening would not have done. Which means that everything was pre-programmed. Just think of the September 11 attack, in which, according to the conspirators, in light of all the evidence available, it does not seem possible that the Americans did not already know of the attack, having in their hands all the elements to deduce it.
• Another example of striking hindsight bias is that of Pearl harbor: According to conspiratorial sources, in effect, in the days prior to the attack there had been up to eight reports, the result of radio interceptions by the Japanese commanders, about the imminent attack on the Hawaii. From this, the conspirators deduce that the attack was easily foreseeable and that a test of premeditation had not been contrasted, intended to constitute an excuse to intervene in the warlike confrontation. In fact, the narrative ignores the fact that, in those same days, radio taps by Japanese commanders had intercepted 58 messages relating to movements of Japanese ships in the Philippines, 21 on attacks in Panama, 7 on attacks on India and Southeast Asia and even 7 on a possible attack on the West Coast from America. The interceptions in those days were therefore so many and confusing that "military intelligence stopped sending memos to the White House, fearing there might be a breach in the security system and the Japanese began to suspect that the Americans had cracked their codes and were reading their communications ".

If you want to know other cognitive biases, in these articles you will find:

• What is confirmation bias
• What is survival bias
• What is the halo effect

This article is merely informative, in Psychology-Online we do not have the power to make a diagnosis or recommend a treatment. We invite you to go to a psychologist to treat your particular case.

If you want to read more articles similar to Hindsight bias: what it is, characteristics and examples, we recommend that you enter our category of Cognitive psychology.

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